Who will win the US Open in 2021? Odds, betting favorites, expert picks & more to know

Jon Rahm was well on his way to victory after Day 3 of the Memorial Tournament early in June. Then, a positive COVID-19 test knocked him out of action at the event. But with the No. 3 player in the world set to return to action for the 2021 U.S. Open, betting odds are bullish on the Spaniard’s potential.

While the 26-year-old has never won a major tournament to date, he has finished with a top-four mark at three of the four championships. That includes a third-place finish in the U.S. Open that came during the 2019 season.

There’s no doubt that after many close calls, Rahm will hope to emerge with his first major win. He should have a good chance to do it, as the South course at Torrey Pines golf course should play to his strengths, as the 7,698-yard course will favor big swingers like Rahm.

Of course, Rahm isn’t a lock to win this major. He’s going up against some of the PGA Tour’s best players and there ar eplenty of big-hitters on the course that could do just as well as him. It may come down to the best combination of accuracy and deep-driving ability this week, so players like Dustin Johnson and Bryson DeChambeau will certainly be in the mix as well.

Here’s everything you need to know to bet on the 2021 U.S. Open, including the latest tournament odds and best bets for the event.

U.S. Open odds 2021

Jon Rahm  (+950) is the favorite to win the 2021 U.S. Open, according to odds from FanDuel Sportsbook. That means a $100 bet on Rahm would include a $950 payout.

Rahm had appeared to be en route to winning the Memorial Tournament at Jack Nicklaus’ Muirfield Village Golf Club earlier in June before a positive COVID test knocked him out of the tournament before the final day of play. But after showing well at a difficult course, he is the favorite here.

Dustin Johnson (+1500), Bryson DeChambeau (+1600), Brooks Koepka (+1800), Rory McIlroy (+1800) and Xander Schauffele (+1800) round out the top six on FanDuel’s odds list. Meanwhile, Phil Mickelson, the winner of the PGA Championship, checks in with +5500 odds to win.

Golfer Odds
Jon Rahm +950
Dustin Johnson +1500
Bryson DeChambeau +1600
Brooks Koepka +1800
Rory McIlroy +1800
Xander Schauffele +1800
Collin Morikawa +1900
Jordan Spieth +2100
Justin Thomas +2300
Patrick Cantlay +2400
Tony Finau +2400
Viktor Hovland +2400
Patrick Reed +2800
Hideki Matsuyama +3400
Shane Lowry +3700
Scottie Scheffler +4100
Will Zalatoris +4100
Tyrrell Hatton +4200
Daniel Berger +4400
Justin Rose +4700
Paul Casey +4700
Louis Oosthuizen +5000
Phil Mickelson +5500
Webb Simpson +5500
Cameron Smith +6000
Matthew Fitzpatrick +6500
Abraham Ancer +7000
Jason Kokrak +7000
Joaquin Niemann +7000

U.S. Open expert picks

Much like the 2021 PGA Championship that was held at Kiawah Island, the Torrey Pines South course should benefit the bigger drivers in the game. It’s set to be the third-longest course ever played at a major tournament at 7,698 yards. That trails only the 2021 PGA Championship at Kiawah Island (7,876 yards) and the 2017 U.S. Open at Erin Hills (7,741 yards).

That’s not to say that that a player that’s weaker off the tee can’t win — Phil Mickelson ranks 180th in the PGA of 212 qualified golfers with a -.388 strokes gained off the tee mark but still won at Kiawah Island — but having a strong driver will help.

The South course is long, has narrow fairways and possesses tricky greens that could provide a bit of a feeling-out process for golfers as they ease their way into the tournament. For that reason, strokes gained off the tee, driver accuracy and strokes gained putting will be the key stats we look at with our top picks.

Of the favorites, Jon Rahm (+950) does appear to be the best of the bunch. He has the shortest odds at +950, but he checks nearly all of the boxes in terms of the stats we’re looking at. He averages 306.9 yards per drive, good for 23rd on the tour this year, and ranks 56th in terms of driving accuracy of 212 golfers, putting him in the top quartile. Add in a third-ranked .859 strokes gained off the tee and above-average putting, and he should have a good chance to win.

Xander Schaffele (+1800) is the other favorite to watch. He brings a good all-around game to the fold, ranking eighth in strokes gained putting (.699) and ranks 26th in driver distance (306.4 yards per drive). His accuracy is merely average, but his ability to gain strokes off the tee (36th-best in the PGA) while finishing near the hole makes him a rock-solid bet to be in contention at the very least.

In terms of long shots, Scottie Scheffler (+4100) and Jason Kokrak (+7000) are worth considering.

Scheffler was one of our sleeper picks for the PGA Championship, and the 24-year-old finished in eighth-place for the tournament. More recently, he finished third at the Memorial Tournament with a -11 mark. Like Schauffele, he’s a well-rounded contributor and brings a nice combination of driving accuracy (41st) and driving distance (35th) to the table. He ranks 11th in strokes gained off the tee and is an above-average putter.

At some point, Scheffler should have a chance to break through. Why not at this tournament?

Meanwhile, Kokrak ranks top-five in strokes gained putting and is top-25 in drivers distance and strokes gained off the tee. His accuracy is a bit hot and cold, which explains his 78 of 212 ranking in the PGA despite his good off the tee numbers. That leaves something to be desired, but it’s still good enough for us to trust him as an underdog, especially at 70-1 odds.

If Kokrak is accurate with the driver, look out. He could string together some solid rounds at Torrey Pines.

U.S. Open winners by year

In 2021, Bryson DeChambeau is looking to become the 23rd player to win the U.S. Open multiple times since the event began in 1895. He earned his first major victory by shooting −6 during the event last year. 

However, DeChambeau could become only the third player to win the event in consecutive seasons. The most recent repeat champion came in 2017-18 when DeChambeau’s rival, Brooks Koepka, took home the tourney title twice. Curtis Strange (1988-89) is the other golfer to accomplish that feat.

In its history, four different golfers have won the event four times. They are Jack Nicklaus, Ben Hogan, Bobby Jones and WIllie Anderson. Nicklaus was the most recent man to complete the feat after his fourth victory, which came in 1980.

The most among active golfers belongs to Tiger Woods, who has won the U.S. Open three times, the last of which came in 2008. However, Woods won’t be participating in this year’s tournament after suffering injuries in a car crash on Feb. 23. So, we’ll have to wait and see if he can compete to join the four four-time winners further down the line.

Year Winner Score
2020 Bryson DeChambeau −6
2019 Gary Woodland −13
2018 Brooks Koepka +1
2017 Brooks Koepka −16
2016 Dustin Johnson −4
2015 Jordan Spieth −5
2014 Martin Kaymer −9
2013 Justin Rose +1
2012 Webb Simpson +1
2011 Rory McIlroy −16
2010 Graeme McDowell E
2009 Lucas Glover −4
2008 Tiger Woods −1
2007 Ángel Cabrera +5
2006 Geoff Ogilvy +5
2005 Michael Campbell E
2004 Retief Goosen −4
2003 Jim Furyk −8
2002 Tiger Woods −3
2001 Retief Goosen −4
2000 Tiger Woods −12
1999 Payne Stewart −1
1998 Lee Janzen E
1997 Ernie Els −4
1996 Steve Jones −2
1995 Corey Pavin. E
1994 Ernie Els −5
1993 Lee Janzen −8
1992 Tom Kite −3
1991 Payne Stewart −6
1990 Hale Irwin −8
1989 Curtis Strange −2
1988 Curtis Strange −6
1987 Scott Simpson −3
1986 Raymond Floyd −1
1985 Andy North −1
1984 Fuzzy Zoeller −4
1983 Larry Nelson −4
1982 Tom Watson −6
1981 David Graham −7
1980 Jack Nicklaus −8
1979 Hale Irwin E
1978 Andy North +1
1977 Hubert Green −2
1976 Jerry Pate −3
1975 Lou Graham +3
1974 Hale Irwin +7
1973 Johnny Miller −5
1972 Jack Nicklaus +2
1971 Lee Trevino E
1970 Tony Jacklin −7
1969 Orville Moody +1
1968 Lee Trevino −5
1967 Jack Nicklaus −5
1966 Billy Casper −2
1965 Gary Player +2
1964 Ken Venturi −2
1963 Julius Boros +9
1962 Jack Nicklaus −1
1961 Gene Littler +1
1960 Arnold Palmer −4
1959 Billy Casper +2
1958 Tommy Bolt +3
1957 Dick Mayer +2
1956 Cary Middlecoff +1
1955 Jack Fleck +7
1954 Ed Furgol +4
1953 Ben Hogan −5
1952 Julius Boros +1
1951 Ben Hogan +7
1950 Ben Hogan +7
1949 Cary Middlecoff +2
1948 Ben Hogan −8
1947 Lew Worsham −2
1946 Lloyd Mangrum −4
1941 Craig Wood +4
1940 Lawson Little −1
1939 Byron Nelson −4
1938 Ralph Guldahl E
1937 Ralph Guldahl +1
1936 Tony Manero −2
1935 Sam Parks, Jr. +11
1934 Olin Dutra +13
1933 Johnny Goodman −1
1932 Gene Sarazen +2
1931 Billy Burke +4
1930 Bobby Jones −1
1929 Bobby Jones 294
1928 Johnny Farrell 294
1927 Tommy Armour 301
1926 Bobby Jones 293
1925 Willie Macfarlane 291
1924 Cyril Walker 297
1923 Bobby Jones 296
1922 Gene Sarazen 288
1921 Jim Barnes 289
1920 Ted Ray 295
1919 Walter Hagen 301
1916 Chick Evans 286
1915 Jerome Travers 297
1914 Walter Hagen 290
1913 Francis Ouimet 304
1912 John McDermott 294
1911 John McDermott 307
1910 Alex Smith 298
1909 George Sargent 290
1908 Fred McLeod 322
1907 Alec Ross 302
1906 Alex Smith 295
1905 Willie Anderson 314
1904 Willie Anderson 303
1903 Willie Anderson 307
1902 Laurie Auchterlonie 307
1901 Willie Anderson 331
1900 Harry Vardon 313
1899 Willie Smith 315
1898 Fred Herd 328
1897 Joe Lloyd 162
1896 James Foulis 152
1895 Horace Rawlins 173

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